Division January Meeting Featuring Joel Kotkin
In recent years it may feel as though America’s star shines a little less brightly in light of inescapable factors such as the recession, costly wars, and high unemployment. All of which has triggered inflamed rhetoric from both sides of the aisle that alarmingly warns of the imminent downfall of this country based on the latest cable news freak-out. And while an indiscriminately pessimistic view of America’s position in the world might blow off some steam, fatalistic prognostications befitting only a doomsayer show a lack of faith not only in our common values but also the adaptability of the nation’s institutions, people, and layers of government.
A refreshing optimism about the nation’s direction lies at the heart of futurist Joel Kotkin’s latest book “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050,” as Kotkin believes that over the next four decades demographic, technological, and geographic changes are several reasons to believe that America’s future is not to be feared. Kotkin has been hailed as America’s “uber-geographer” by the New York Times and is a Distinguished Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University, as well as an Adjunct Fellow with the Leagatum Institute in London. The L.A. Division of the League of California Cities was fortunate to have Kotkin as a featured speaker at its January 6 meeting.
While Kotkin’s generally optimistic views form the basis of his book’s premise, in a speech that was specific to California and the Los Angeles region, Kotkin for the most part presented a rather bleak picture. He noted that the L.A. region was a constant underperformer and that he never believed he would see the area fall behind New York when it came to employment growth. As our population increases, the labor force will expand, making jobs the big issue and our current jobs deficit all the more troubling; notably, Kotkin pointed out that in comparison to most other major cities and Western states, the L.A. region and California are not doing as well. Furthermore, the state’s high-tech jobs are often touted as a reliable economic boost, but Kotkin noted that from 2002 to 2010, growth in the industry was only 1.7 percent, a rate that falls behind the nation and Texas. Our growth rate for middle-skill jobs has also fallen behind Texas and the whole country.
Other areas of concern for the L.A. region-cities include a troubling increase in the rate of poverty, domestic migration rates that include an increasing number of young families and young Californians departing for other states like Texas, and unaffordable housing costs.
All of these developments are not to say the region is without hope, according to Kotkin. While there is certainly not a shortage of issues to address, especially at the state level, Kotkin believes that immigrants are the bright spot and are vital for the future success of the country and California, where they are certainly a signature of the area. Immigration will increase purchasing power and will create developing countries within a country. An example is the success of ethnically-oriented shopping centers, such as the Diamond Jamboree center in the city of Irvine.
In a future America that is slated to be more populous and diverse than ever, Kotkin argues that it is important to keep in mind that a majority of Americans will continue to avoid density and will prefer to live in single-family homes, meaning the market for urban living is likely to remain smaller overall. Thus, suburb growth will be an important factor as aging Millennials and immigrants look for single-family houses. Consequently, developers and officials should not look to force people to live in a way that they don’t want for the sake of being green. Instead, Kotkin believes that promoting telecommuting and improving infrastructure and transportation are more ideal in comparison to forced densification. Specific to Los Angeles, Kotkin also noted in his book that as a multi-polar city, future urban growth will follow L.A.’s development and will provide a template to other cities.
It must be said that it seems there are more questions than answers when considering how cities can best adapt for future changes population-wise. Kotkin advocated an approach that relied on going back to basics, which is undeniably rather vague, and when one considers the significant changes that lie ahead, a cautious person could conclude the very basics may fall short. Our state politics have been consumed by budget battling and the deficit, but without economic growth, Kotkin argues that such budget fights are less important when it comes to thwarting long-term decline.
Our cities, state and country have indeed faced troubling times and undoubtedly will continue to do so as new challenges arise; however, while one could write off optimism as misguided, the central premise of Kotkin’s work shows that a proactive approach will prove his optimism is indeed warranted. No precise corrective can be clear when the future remains uncertain and full of a variety of inevitable changes; however; Kotkin’s perspective reminds us that the country and our governments are capable of having the necessary tools and resources at their disposal. Understanding that the basic needs and wants of future Americans are unlikely to be much different from our own will perhaps allow cities to evolve and adapt successfully.
Joel Kotkin’s book “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050,” is available now and can be purchased at any major book retailer. For a description of the book in the words of the author himself, see here:
Joel Kotkin Summarizes "The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050" from Voices for Innovation on Vimeo.
